Product life cycle management (or PLCM) is the succession of strategies used by business management as a product goes through its life cycle. The conditions in which a product is sold (advertising, saturation) changes over time and must be managed as it moves through its succession of stages.
Product life cycle (PLC) Like human beings, products also have a life-cycle. From birth to death, human beings pass through various stages e.g. birth, growth, maturity, decline and death. A similar life-cycle is seen in the case of products. The product life cycle goes through multiple phases, involves many professional disciplines, and requires many skills, tools and processes. Product life cycle (PLC) has to do with the life of a product in the market with respect to business/commercial costs and sales measures. To say that a product has a life cycle is to assert three things:
Products have a limited life,
Product sales pass through distinct stages, each posing different challenges, opportunities, and problems to the seller,
Products require different marketing, financing, manufacturing, purchasing, and human resource strategies in each life cycle stage.
The four main stages of a product's life cycle and the accompanying characteristics are:
Stage Characteristics
1. Market introduction stage
costs are very high
slow sales volumes to start
little or no competition
demand has to be created
customers have to be prompted to try the product
makes no money at this stage
2. Growth stage
costs reduced due to economies of scale
sales volume increases significantly
profitability begins to rise
public awareness increases
competition begins to increase with a few new players in establishing market
increased competition leads to price decreases
3. Maturity stage
costs are lowered as a result of production volumes increasing and experience curve effects
sales volume peaks and market saturation is reached
increase in competitors entering the market
prices tend to drop due to the proliferation of competing products
brand differentiation and feature diversification is emphasized to maintain or increase market share
Industrial profits go down
4. Saturation and decline stage
costs become counter-optimal
sales volume decline or stabilize
prices, profitability diminish
profit becomes more a challenge of production/distribution efficiency than increased sales
MA ECONOMICS
NOTES AVAILABLE IN REASONABLE PRICE
Macroeconomics and Microeconomics: Chit Chat
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Sunday, July 10, 2011
W.W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth
It is possible to identify all societies, in their economic dimensions, as lying within one of five categories: the traditional society, the preconditions for take-off, the take-off, the drive to maturity, and the age of high mass-consumption.
THE TRADITIONAL SOCIETY
First, the traditional society. A traditional society is one whose structure is developed within limited production functions, based on pre-Newtonian science and technology, and on pre-Newtonian attitudes towards the physical world. Newton is here used as a symbol for that watershed in history when men came widely to believe that the external world was subject to a few knowable laws, and was systematically capable of productive manipulation.
The conception of the traditional society is, however, in no sense static; and it would not exclude increases in output. Acreage could be expanded; some ad hoc technical innovations, often highly productive innovations, could be introduced in trade, industry and agriculture; productivity could rise with, for example, the improvement of irrigation works or the discovery and diffusion of a new crop. But the central fact about the traditional society was that a ceiling existed on the level of attainable output per head. This ceiling resulted from the fact that the potentialities which flow from modern science and technology were either not available or not regularly and systematically applied.
Both in the longer past and in recent times the story of traditional societies was thus a story of endless change. The area and volume of trade within them and between them fluctuated, for example, with the degree of political and social turbulence, the efficiency of central rule, the upkeep of the roads. Population--and, within limits, the level of life--rose and fell not only with the sequence of the harvests, but with the incidence of war and of plague. Varying degrees of manufacture developed; but, as in agriculture, the level of productivity was limited by the inaccessibility of modern science, its applications, and its frame of mind.
Generally speaking, these societies, because of the limitation on productivity, had to devote a very high proportion of their resources to agriculture; and flowing from the agricultural system there was an hierarchical social structure, with relatively narrow scope--but some scope--for vertical mobility. Family and clan connexions played a large role in social organization. The value system of these societies was generally geared to what might be called a long-run fatalism; that is, the assumption that the range of possibilities open to one's grandchildren would be just about what it had been for one's grandparents. But this long-run fatalism by no means excluded the short-run option that, within a considerable range, it was possible and legitimate for the individual to strive to improve his lot, within his lifetime. In Chinese villages, for example, there was an endless struggle to acquire or to avoid losing land, yielding a situation where land rarely remained within the same family for a century.
Although central political rule--in one form or another--often existed in traditional societies, transcending the relatively self-sufficient regions, the centre of gravity of political power generally lay in the regions, in the hands of those who owned or controlled the land. The landowner maintained fluctuating but usually profound influence over such central political power as existed, backed by its entourage of civil servants and soldiers, imbued with attitudes and controlled by interests transcending the regions.
In terms of history then, with the phrase 'traditional society' we are grouping the whole pre-Newtonian world : the dynasties in China; the civilization of the Middle East and the Mediterranean; the world of medieval Europe. And to them we add the post-Newtonian societies which, for a time, remained untouched or unmoved by man's new capability for regularly manipulating his environment to his economic advantage.
To place these infinitely various, changing societies in a single category, on the ground that they all shared a ceiling on the productivity of their economic techniques, is to say very little indeed. But we are, after all, merely clearing the way in order to get at the subject of this book; that is, the post-traditional societies, in which each of the major characteristics of the traditional society was altered in such ways as to permit regular growth: its politics, social structure, and (to a degree) its values, as well as its economy.
THE PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE-OFF
The second stage of growth embraces societies in the process of transition; that is, the period when the preconditions for take-off are developed; for it takes time to transform a traditional society in the ways necessary for it to exploit the fruits of modern science, to fend off diminishing returns, and thus to enjoy the blessings and choices opened up by the march of compound interest.
The preconditions for take-off were initially developed, in a clearly marked way, in Western Europe of the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries as the insights of modern science began to be translated into new production functions in both agriculture and industry, in a setting given dynamism by the lateral expansion of world markets and the international competition for them. But all that lies behind the break-up of the Middle Ages is relevant to the creation of the preconditions for take-off in Western Europe. Among the Western European states, Britain, favoured by geography, natural resources, trading possibilities, social and political structure, was the first to develop fully the preconditions for take-off.
The more general case in modern history, however, saw the stage of preconditions arise not endogenously but from some external intrusion by more advanced societies. These invasions-literal or figurative-shocked the traditional society and began or hastened its undoing; but they also set in motion ideas and sentiments which initiated the process by which a modern alternative to the traditional society was constructed out of the old culture.
The idea spreads not merely that economic progress is possible, hut that economic progress is a necessary condition for some other purpose, judged to be good: be it national dignity, private profit, the general welfare, or a better life for the children. Education, for some at least, broadens and changes to suit the needs of modern economic activity. New types of enterprising men come forward--in the private economy, in government, or both--willing to mobilize savings and to take risks in pursuit of profit or modernization. Banks and other institutions for mobilizing capital appear. Investment increases, notably in transport, communications, and in raw materials in which other nations may have an economic interest. The scope of commerce, internal and external, widens. And, here and there, modern manufacturing enterprise appears, using the new methods. But all this activity proceeds at a limited pace within an economy and a society still mainly characterized by traditional low-productivity methods, by the old social structure and values, and by the regionally based political institutions that developed in conjunction with them.
In many recent cases, for example, the traditional society persisted side by side with modern economic activities, conducted for limited economic purposes by a colonial or quasi-colonial power.
Although the period of transition--between the traditional society and the take-off--saw major changes in both the economy itself and in the balance of social values, a decisive feature was often political. Politically, the building of an effective centralized national state--on the basis of coalitions touched with a new nationalism, in opposition to the traditional landed regional interests, the colonial power, or both, was a decisive aspect of the preconditions period; and it was, almost universally, a necessary condition for take-off.
There is a great deal more that needs to be said about the preconditions period, but we shall leave it for chapter 3, where the anatomy of the transition from a traditional to a modern society is examined.
THE TAKE-OFF
We come now to the great watershed in the life of modern societies: the third stage in this sequence, the take-off. The take-off is the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome. The forces making for economic progress, which yielded limited bursts and enclaves of modern activity, expand and come to dominate the society. Growth becomes its normal condition. Compound interest becomes built, as it were, into its habits and institutional structure.
In Britain and the well-endowed parts of the world populated substantially from Britain (the United States, Canada etc.) the proximate stimulus for take-off was mainly (but not wholly) technological. In the more general case, the take-off awaited not only the build-up of social overhead capital and a surge of technological development in industry and agriculture, but also the emergence to political power of a group prepared to regard the modernization of the economy as serious, high-order political business.
During the take-off, the rate of effective investment and savings may rise from, say, 5 % of the national income to 10% or more; although where heavy social overhead capital investment was required to create the technical preconditions for take-off the investment rate in the preconditions period could be higher than 5%, as, for example, in Canada before the 1890's and Argentina before 1914. In such cases capital imports usually formed a high proportion of total investment in the preconditions period and sometimes even during the take-off itself, as in Russia and Canada during their pre-1914 railway booms.
During the take-off new industries expand rapidly, yielding profits a large proportion of which are reinvested in new plant; and these new industries, in turn, stimulate, through their rapidly expanding requirement for factory workers, the services to support them, and for other manufactured goods, a further expansion in urban areas and in other modern industrial plants. The whole process of expansion in the modern sector yields an increase of income in the hands of those who not only save at high rates but place their savings at the disposal of those engaged in modern sector activities. The new class of entrepreneurs expands; and it directs the enlarging flows of investment in the private sector. The economy exploits hitherto unused natural resources and methods of production.
New techniques spread in agriculture as well as industry, as agriculture is commercialized, and increasing numbers of farmers are prepared to accept the new methods and the deep changes they bring to ways of life. The revolutionary changes in agricultural productivity are an essential condition for successful take-off; for modernization of a society increases radically its bill for agricultural products. In a decade or two both the basic structure of the economy and the social and political structure of the society are transformed in such a way that a steady rate of growth can be, thereafter, regularly sustained.
As indicated in chapter 4, one can approximately allocate the take-off of Britain to the two decades after 1783; France and the United States to the several decades preceding 1860; Germany, the third quarter of the nineteenth century; Japan, the fourth quarter of the nineteenth century; Russia and Canada the quarter-century or so preceding 1914; while during the 1950's India and China have, in quite different ways, launched their respective take-offs.
THE DRIVE TO MATURITY
After take-off there follows a long interval of sustained if fluctuating progress, as the now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the whole front of its economic activity. Some 10-20% of the national income is steadily invested, permitting output regularly to outstrip the increase in population. The make-up of the economy changes unceasingly as technique improves, new industries accelerate, older industries level off. The economy finds its place in the international economy: goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import requirements develop, and new export commodities to match them. The society makes such terms as it will with the requirements of modern efficient production, balancing off the new against the older values and institutions, or revising the latter in such ways as to support rather than to retard the growth process.
Some sixty years after take-off begins (say, forty years after the end of take-off) what may be called maturity is generally attained. The economy, focused during the take-off around a relatively narrow complex of industry and technology, has extended its range into more refined and technologically often more complex processes; for example, there may be a shift in focus from the coal, iron, and heavy engineering industries of the railway phase to machine-tools, chemicals, and electrical equipment. This, for example, was the transition through which Germany, Britain, France, and the United States had passed by the end of the nineteenth century or shortly thereafter. But there are other sectoral patterns which have been followed in the sequence from take-off to maturity, which are considered in chapter 5.
Formally, we can define maturity as the stage in which an economy demonstrates the capacity to move beyond the original industries which powered its take-off and to absorb and to apply efficiently over a very wide range of its resources--if not the whole range--the most advanced fruits of (then) modern technology. This is the stage in which an economy demonstrates that it has the technological and entrepreneurial skills to produce not everything, but anything that it chooses to produce. It may lack (like contemporary Sweden and Switzerland, for example) the raw materials or other supply conditions required to produce a given type of output economically; but its dependence is a matter of economic choice or political priority rather than a technological or institutional necessity.
Historically, it would appear that something like sixty years was required to move a society from the beginning of take-off to maturity. Analytically the explanation for some such interval may lie in the powerful arithmetic of compound interest applied to the capital stock, combined with the broader consequences for a society's ability to absorb modern technology of three successive generations living under a regime where growth is the normal condition. But, clearly, no dogmatism is justified about the exact length of the interval from take-off to maturity.
THE AGE OF HIGH MASS-CONSUMPTION
We come now to the age of high mass-consumption, where, in time, the leading sectors shift towards durable consumers' goods and services: a phase from which Americans are beginning to emerge; whose not unequivocal joys Western Europe and Japan are beginning energetically to probe; and with which Soviet society is engaged in an uneasy flirtation.
As societies achieved maturity in the twentieth century two things happened: real income per head rose to a point where a large number of persons gained a command over consumption which transcended basic food, shelter, and clothing; and the structure of the working force changed in ways which increased not only the proportion of urban to total population, but also the proportion of the population working in offices or in skilled factory jobs-aware of and anxious to acquire the consumption fruits of a mature economy.
In addition to these economic changes, the society ceased to accept the further extension of modern technology as an overriding objective. It is in this post-maturity stage, for example, that, through the political process, Western societies have chosen to allocate increased resources to social welfare and security. The emergence of the welfare state is one manifestation of a society's moving beyond technical maturity; but it is also at this stage that resources tend increasingly to be directed to the production of consumers' durables and to the diffusion of services on a mass basis, if consumers' sovereignty reigns. The sewing-machine, the bicycle, and then the various electric-powered household gadgets were gradually diffused. Historically, however, the decisive element has been the cheap mass automobile with its quite revolutionary effects--social as well as economic--on the life and expectations of society.
For the United States, the turning point was, perhaps, Henry Ford's moving assembly line of 1913-14; but it was in the 1920's, and again in the post-war decade, 1946-56, that this stage of growth was pressed to, virtually, its logical conclusion. In the 1950's Western Europe and Japan appear to have fully entered this phase, accounting substantially for a momentum in their economies quite unexpected in the immediate post-war years. The Soviet Union is technically ready for this stage, and, by every sign, its citizens hunger for it; but Communist leaders face difficult political and social problems of adjustment if this stage is launched.
BEYOND CONSUMPTION
Beyond, it is impossible to predict, except perhaps to observe that Americans, at least, have behaved in the past decade as if diminishing relative marginal utility sets in, after a point, for durable consumers' goods; and they have chosen, at the margin, larger families- behaviour in the pattern of Buddenbrooks dynamics.*
Americans have behaved as if, having been born into a system that provided economic security and high mass-consumption, they placed a lower valuation on acquiring additional increments of real income in the conventional form as opposed to the advantages and values of an enlarged family. But even in this adventure in generalization it is a shade too soon to create--on the basis of one case--a new stage-of-growth, based on babies, in succession to the age of consumers' durables: as economists might say, the income-elasticity of demand for babies may well vary from society to society. But it is true that the implications of the baby boom along with the not wholly unrelated deficit in social overhead capital are likely to dominate the American economy over the next decade rather than the further diffusion of consi' mers' durables.
Here then, in an impressionistic rather than an analytic way, are the stages-of-growth which can be distinguished once a traditional society begins its modernization: the transitional period when the preconditions for take-off are created generally in response to the intrusion of a foreign power, converging with certain domestic forces making for modernization; the take-off itself; the sweep into maturity generally taking up the life of about two further generations; and then, finally, if the rise of income has matched the spread of technological virtuosity (which, as we shall see, it need not immediately do) the diversion of the fully mature economy to the provision of durable consumers' goods and services (as well as the welfare state) for its increasingly urban-and then suburban-population. Beyond lies the question of whether or not secular spiritual stagnation will arise, and, if it does, how man might fend it off:
THE TRADITIONAL SOCIETY
First, the traditional society. A traditional society is one whose structure is developed within limited production functions, based on pre-Newtonian science and technology, and on pre-Newtonian attitudes towards the physical world. Newton is here used as a symbol for that watershed in history when men came widely to believe that the external world was subject to a few knowable laws, and was systematically capable of productive manipulation.
The conception of the traditional society is, however, in no sense static; and it would not exclude increases in output. Acreage could be expanded; some ad hoc technical innovations, often highly productive innovations, could be introduced in trade, industry and agriculture; productivity could rise with, for example, the improvement of irrigation works or the discovery and diffusion of a new crop. But the central fact about the traditional society was that a ceiling existed on the level of attainable output per head. This ceiling resulted from the fact that the potentialities which flow from modern science and technology were either not available or not regularly and systematically applied.
Both in the longer past and in recent times the story of traditional societies was thus a story of endless change. The area and volume of trade within them and between them fluctuated, for example, with the degree of political and social turbulence, the efficiency of central rule, the upkeep of the roads. Population--and, within limits, the level of life--rose and fell not only with the sequence of the harvests, but with the incidence of war and of plague. Varying degrees of manufacture developed; but, as in agriculture, the level of productivity was limited by the inaccessibility of modern science, its applications, and its frame of mind.
Generally speaking, these societies, because of the limitation on productivity, had to devote a very high proportion of their resources to agriculture; and flowing from the agricultural system there was an hierarchical social structure, with relatively narrow scope--but some scope--for vertical mobility. Family and clan connexions played a large role in social organization. The value system of these societies was generally geared to what might be called a long-run fatalism; that is, the assumption that the range of possibilities open to one's grandchildren would be just about what it had been for one's grandparents. But this long-run fatalism by no means excluded the short-run option that, within a considerable range, it was possible and legitimate for the individual to strive to improve his lot, within his lifetime. In Chinese villages, for example, there was an endless struggle to acquire or to avoid losing land, yielding a situation where land rarely remained within the same family for a century.
Although central political rule--in one form or another--often existed in traditional societies, transcending the relatively self-sufficient regions, the centre of gravity of political power generally lay in the regions, in the hands of those who owned or controlled the land. The landowner maintained fluctuating but usually profound influence over such central political power as existed, backed by its entourage of civil servants and soldiers, imbued with attitudes and controlled by interests transcending the regions.
In terms of history then, with the phrase 'traditional society' we are grouping the whole pre-Newtonian world : the dynasties in China; the civilization of the Middle East and the Mediterranean; the world of medieval Europe. And to them we add the post-Newtonian societies which, for a time, remained untouched or unmoved by man's new capability for regularly manipulating his environment to his economic advantage.
To place these infinitely various, changing societies in a single category, on the ground that they all shared a ceiling on the productivity of their economic techniques, is to say very little indeed. But we are, after all, merely clearing the way in order to get at the subject of this book; that is, the post-traditional societies, in which each of the major characteristics of the traditional society was altered in such ways as to permit regular growth: its politics, social structure, and (to a degree) its values, as well as its economy.
THE PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE-OFF
The second stage of growth embraces societies in the process of transition; that is, the period when the preconditions for take-off are developed; for it takes time to transform a traditional society in the ways necessary for it to exploit the fruits of modern science, to fend off diminishing returns, and thus to enjoy the blessings and choices opened up by the march of compound interest.
The preconditions for take-off were initially developed, in a clearly marked way, in Western Europe of the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries as the insights of modern science began to be translated into new production functions in both agriculture and industry, in a setting given dynamism by the lateral expansion of world markets and the international competition for them. But all that lies behind the break-up of the Middle Ages is relevant to the creation of the preconditions for take-off in Western Europe. Among the Western European states, Britain, favoured by geography, natural resources, trading possibilities, social and political structure, was the first to develop fully the preconditions for take-off.
The more general case in modern history, however, saw the stage of preconditions arise not endogenously but from some external intrusion by more advanced societies. These invasions-literal or figurative-shocked the traditional society and began or hastened its undoing; but they also set in motion ideas and sentiments which initiated the process by which a modern alternative to the traditional society was constructed out of the old culture.
The idea spreads not merely that economic progress is possible, hut that economic progress is a necessary condition for some other purpose, judged to be good: be it national dignity, private profit, the general welfare, or a better life for the children. Education, for some at least, broadens and changes to suit the needs of modern economic activity. New types of enterprising men come forward--in the private economy, in government, or both--willing to mobilize savings and to take risks in pursuit of profit or modernization. Banks and other institutions for mobilizing capital appear. Investment increases, notably in transport, communications, and in raw materials in which other nations may have an economic interest. The scope of commerce, internal and external, widens. And, here and there, modern manufacturing enterprise appears, using the new methods. But all this activity proceeds at a limited pace within an economy and a society still mainly characterized by traditional low-productivity methods, by the old social structure and values, and by the regionally based political institutions that developed in conjunction with them.
In many recent cases, for example, the traditional society persisted side by side with modern economic activities, conducted for limited economic purposes by a colonial or quasi-colonial power.
Although the period of transition--between the traditional society and the take-off--saw major changes in both the economy itself and in the balance of social values, a decisive feature was often political. Politically, the building of an effective centralized national state--on the basis of coalitions touched with a new nationalism, in opposition to the traditional landed regional interests, the colonial power, or both, was a decisive aspect of the preconditions period; and it was, almost universally, a necessary condition for take-off.
There is a great deal more that needs to be said about the preconditions period, but we shall leave it for chapter 3, where the anatomy of the transition from a traditional to a modern society is examined.
THE TAKE-OFF
We come now to the great watershed in the life of modern societies: the third stage in this sequence, the take-off. The take-off is the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome. The forces making for economic progress, which yielded limited bursts and enclaves of modern activity, expand and come to dominate the society. Growth becomes its normal condition. Compound interest becomes built, as it were, into its habits and institutional structure.
In Britain and the well-endowed parts of the world populated substantially from Britain (the United States, Canada etc.) the proximate stimulus for take-off was mainly (but not wholly) technological. In the more general case, the take-off awaited not only the build-up of social overhead capital and a surge of technological development in industry and agriculture, but also the emergence to political power of a group prepared to regard the modernization of the economy as serious, high-order political business.
During the take-off, the rate of effective investment and savings may rise from, say, 5 % of the national income to 10% or more; although where heavy social overhead capital investment was required to create the technical preconditions for take-off the investment rate in the preconditions period could be higher than 5%, as, for example, in Canada before the 1890's and Argentina before 1914. In such cases capital imports usually formed a high proportion of total investment in the preconditions period and sometimes even during the take-off itself, as in Russia and Canada during their pre-1914 railway booms.
During the take-off new industries expand rapidly, yielding profits a large proportion of which are reinvested in new plant; and these new industries, in turn, stimulate, through their rapidly expanding requirement for factory workers, the services to support them, and for other manufactured goods, a further expansion in urban areas and in other modern industrial plants. The whole process of expansion in the modern sector yields an increase of income in the hands of those who not only save at high rates but place their savings at the disposal of those engaged in modern sector activities. The new class of entrepreneurs expands; and it directs the enlarging flows of investment in the private sector. The economy exploits hitherto unused natural resources and methods of production.
New techniques spread in agriculture as well as industry, as agriculture is commercialized, and increasing numbers of farmers are prepared to accept the new methods and the deep changes they bring to ways of life. The revolutionary changes in agricultural productivity are an essential condition for successful take-off; for modernization of a society increases radically its bill for agricultural products. In a decade or two both the basic structure of the economy and the social and political structure of the society are transformed in such a way that a steady rate of growth can be, thereafter, regularly sustained.
As indicated in chapter 4, one can approximately allocate the take-off of Britain to the two decades after 1783; France and the United States to the several decades preceding 1860; Germany, the third quarter of the nineteenth century; Japan, the fourth quarter of the nineteenth century; Russia and Canada the quarter-century or so preceding 1914; while during the 1950's India and China have, in quite different ways, launched their respective take-offs.
THE DRIVE TO MATURITY
After take-off there follows a long interval of sustained if fluctuating progress, as the now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the whole front of its economic activity. Some 10-20% of the national income is steadily invested, permitting output regularly to outstrip the increase in population. The make-up of the economy changes unceasingly as technique improves, new industries accelerate, older industries level off. The economy finds its place in the international economy: goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import requirements develop, and new export commodities to match them. The society makes such terms as it will with the requirements of modern efficient production, balancing off the new against the older values and institutions, or revising the latter in such ways as to support rather than to retard the growth process.
Some sixty years after take-off begins (say, forty years after the end of take-off) what may be called maturity is generally attained. The economy, focused during the take-off around a relatively narrow complex of industry and technology, has extended its range into more refined and technologically often more complex processes; for example, there may be a shift in focus from the coal, iron, and heavy engineering industries of the railway phase to machine-tools, chemicals, and electrical equipment. This, for example, was the transition through which Germany, Britain, France, and the United States had passed by the end of the nineteenth century or shortly thereafter. But there are other sectoral patterns which have been followed in the sequence from take-off to maturity, which are considered in chapter 5.
Formally, we can define maturity as the stage in which an economy demonstrates the capacity to move beyond the original industries which powered its take-off and to absorb and to apply efficiently over a very wide range of its resources--if not the whole range--the most advanced fruits of (then) modern technology. This is the stage in which an economy demonstrates that it has the technological and entrepreneurial skills to produce not everything, but anything that it chooses to produce. It may lack (like contemporary Sweden and Switzerland, for example) the raw materials or other supply conditions required to produce a given type of output economically; but its dependence is a matter of economic choice or political priority rather than a technological or institutional necessity.
Historically, it would appear that something like sixty years was required to move a society from the beginning of take-off to maturity. Analytically the explanation for some such interval may lie in the powerful arithmetic of compound interest applied to the capital stock, combined with the broader consequences for a society's ability to absorb modern technology of three successive generations living under a regime where growth is the normal condition. But, clearly, no dogmatism is justified about the exact length of the interval from take-off to maturity.
THE AGE OF HIGH MASS-CONSUMPTION
We come now to the age of high mass-consumption, where, in time, the leading sectors shift towards durable consumers' goods and services: a phase from which Americans are beginning to emerge; whose not unequivocal joys Western Europe and Japan are beginning energetically to probe; and with which Soviet society is engaged in an uneasy flirtation.
As societies achieved maturity in the twentieth century two things happened: real income per head rose to a point where a large number of persons gained a command over consumption which transcended basic food, shelter, and clothing; and the structure of the working force changed in ways which increased not only the proportion of urban to total population, but also the proportion of the population working in offices or in skilled factory jobs-aware of and anxious to acquire the consumption fruits of a mature economy.
In addition to these economic changes, the society ceased to accept the further extension of modern technology as an overriding objective. It is in this post-maturity stage, for example, that, through the political process, Western societies have chosen to allocate increased resources to social welfare and security. The emergence of the welfare state is one manifestation of a society's moving beyond technical maturity; but it is also at this stage that resources tend increasingly to be directed to the production of consumers' durables and to the diffusion of services on a mass basis, if consumers' sovereignty reigns. The sewing-machine, the bicycle, and then the various electric-powered household gadgets were gradually diffused. Historically, however, the decisive element has been the cheap mass automobile with its quite revolutionary effects--social as well as economic--on the life and expectations of society.
For the United States, the turning point was, perhaps, Henry Ford's moving assembly line of 1913-14; but it was in the 1920's, and again in the post-war decade, 1946-56, that this stage of growth was pressed to, virtually, its logical conclusion. In the 1950's Western Europe and Japan appear to have fully entered this phase, accounting substantially for a momentum in their economies quite unexpected in the immediate post-war years. The Soviet Union is technically ready for this stage, and, by every sign, its citizens hunger for it; but Communist leaders face difficult political and social problems of adjustment if this stage is launched.
BEYOND CONSUMPTION
Beyond, it is impossible to predict, except perhaps to observe that Americans, at least, have behaved in the past decade as if diminishing relative marginal utility sets in, after a point, for durable consumers' goods; and they have chosen, at the margin, larger families- behaviour in the pattern of Buddenbrooks dynamics.*
Americans have behaved as if, having been born into a system that provided economic security and high mass-consumption, they placed a lower valuation on acquiring additional increments of real income in the conventional form as opposed to the advantages and values of an enlarged family. But even in this adventure in generalization it is a shade too soon to create--on the basis of one case--a new stage-of-growth, based on babies, in succession to the age of consumers' durables: as economists might say, the income-elasticity of demand for babies may well vary from society to society. But it is true that the implications of the baby boom along with the not wholly unrelated deficit in social overhead capital are likely to dominate the American economy over the next decade rather than the further diffusion of consi' mers' durables.
Here then, in an impressionistic rather than an analytic way, are the stages-of-growth which can be distinguished once a traditional society begins its modernization: the transitional period when the preconditions for take-off are created generally in response to the intrusion of a foreign power, converging with certain domestic forces making for modernization; the take-off itself; the sweep into maturity generally taking up the life of about two further generations; and then, finally, if the rise of income has matched the spread of technological virtuosity (which, as we shall see, it need not immediately do) the diversion of the fully mature economy to the provision of durable consumers' goods and services (as well as the welfare state) for its increasingly urban-and then suburban-population. Beyond lies the question of whether or not secular spiritual stagnation will arise, and, if it does, how man might fend it off:
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
MA ECONOMICS MONETARY ECONOMICS PAPER III,9TH JULY HAS BEEN POSTPONED
MA ECONOMICS MONETARY ECONOMICS PAPER III,9TH JULY HAS BEEN POSTPONED.
Open Market Operation
Generally speaking, Open Market Operation (OMO) is a transaction on the open financial market, involving fiscal instruments such as governments` securities, or commercial papers, commenced by a central banking authority, with the purpose of regulating the money supply and credit conditions. In terms of their duration, there may be distinguished two types of OMO – PEMO (permanent OMO) and REPO (temporary OMO, or repurchase agreement OMO). Most central banks focus their monetary-regulating policies and monitoring on REPO transactions. As transactions, both REPO and PEMO serve to drain or add the available to the banking system reserves. However, PEMO means an outright buying or selling of government securities, while a distinguished feature of REPO is that they are generally short-term, often overnight, and the securities are subject to buy-back.
OMO, as related to the commercial banks, serves a liquidity-providing function. The central banking authority may provide money reserve to the commercial banks by buying securities and unleashing money in the banking system, or it may sell securities. By selling, the central bank (or a group of reserve banks as is the case with the US FED) may lower the interest. The institution does so by means of lowering the interest rates on the government securities and by increasing their offering and, consequently, price, on the open market. Often, OMO is a direct instrument of monetary policy, because the instrument influences the money supply directly. Forex swaps and other types of foreign exchange operations are also open market operations.
For the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB) is an independent monetary institution, which is responsible for the monetary policy of the Union and the Euro zone. OMOs of the ECB, as part of the European System of Central Banks, are governed and regulated by CHAPTER IV. Article 18 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank declares that while attaining the aims of the ESCB and implementing its tasks, the ECB, together with the central banking institutions may: — function in the financial markets through the purchase and sale outright or via repurchase agreements, conducted in different currencies and precious metals. In the functioning of the ECB and the national banks in Europe, OMO serves not only as the aforementioned liquidity generator and a steering wheel for short-term interest rates, but also as a way to proclaim the ECB position on the monetary situation in the Euro area. Between mid - 2009 and mid - 2010 the central banks from the Eurosystem plan to conduct OMO purchases in covered bonds with a targeted nominal of EUR60.000.000.000.
According to Reuters, it is the open market operations that helped the Fed to hold interest rates down by backing the WWII borrowing extravaganza of the US government, while refinancing effectively the debt at low cost. Reuters also adds that the Fed of Bernanke is acting in a similar manner through its Treasury bills purchase program.
FED’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for conducting OMO policy in the US. FOMC has 12 members. Seven of the members come from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and thus constitute a majority. They are appointed by the President of the US and approved by the Senate before starting their 14 years of service in the Board. The other 5 representatives in the Committee are Presidents of the Reserve Bank: one of them is the President of the district FRB of New York. This district reserve bank is the largest and most prominent of the twelve reserve banks.
OMO, as related to the commercial banks, serves a liquidity-providing function. The central banking authority may provide money reserve to the commercial banks by buying securities and unleashing money in the banking system, or it may sell securities. By selling, the central bank (or a group of reserve banks as is the case with the US FED) may lower the interest. The institution does so by means of lowering the interest rates on the government securities and by increasing their offering and, consequently, price, on the open market. Often, OMO is a direct instrument of monetary policy, because the instrument influences the money supply directly. Forex swaps and other types of foreign exchange operations are also open market operations.
For the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB) is an independent monetary institution, which is responsible for the monetary policy of the Union and the Euro zone. OMOs of the ECB, as part of the European System of Central Banks, are governed and regulated by CHAPTER IV. Article 18 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank declares that while attaining the aims of the ESCB and implementing its tasks, the ECB, together with the central banking institutions may: — function in the financial markets through the purchase and sale outright or via repurchase agreements, conducted in different currencies and precious metals. In the functioning of the ECB and the national banks in Europe, OMO serves not only as the aforementioned liquidity generator and a steering wheel for short-term interest rates, but also as a way to proclaim the ECB position on the monetary situation in the Euro area. Between mid - 2009 and mid - 2010 the central banks from the Eurosystem plan to conduct OMO purchases in covered bonds with a targeted nominal of EUR60.000.000.000.
According to Reuters, it is the open market operations that helped the Fed to hold interest rates down by backing the WWII borrowing extravaganza of the US government, while refinancing effectively the debt at low cost. Reuters also adds that the Fed of Bernanke is acting in a similar manner through its Treasury bills purchase program.
FED’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for conducting OMO policy in the US. FOMC has 12 members. Seven of the members come from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and thus constitute a majority. They are appointed by the President of the US and approved by the Senate before starting their 14 years of service in the Board. The other 5 representatives in the Committee are Presidents of the Reserve Bank: one of them is the President of the district FRB of New York. This district reserve bank is the largest and most prominent of the twelve reserve banks.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Functions of Central Bank
Central bank is an important organization for any country. It performs traditional and developmental role to accomplish macro-economic objectives. This includes currency issuance, regulation of liquidity, supervision of banks and secondary markets, exchange rate management, balance of payment, establishment and development of financial institutions.
Central bank is the center of banking system of any country and has sole authority to control and regulate the supply of money. Central bank controls the supply of money by keeping the welfare of people in mind as primary object. Functions of central bank are discussed in detail below.
Monopoly over Issuing Currency
The primary function of central banks is to issue money in the country. Central bank issue currency notes by following certain regulations enforced by the state. There are different requirements which central bank need to fulfill for this purpose, one important prerequisite is keeping reserve against issued money. Some important advantages for this sole authority are:
- Credit creation by commercial banks can be checked and controlled by central bank.
- Central Bank has the confidence of people as it has the government backing and recognition.
- As the sole authority of issuing currency there is uniformity in the country’s currency.
- Government can use this sole authority for the best interest of people.
Government Agent and Advisor
It acts as the government bank and agent, to collect and pay transactions on behalf of the government. Central bank has a detail record of all monetary issues and present in good position to advise government for monetary, banking and financial issues.
Bankers Bank
It is the bank for all commercial banks and monitor and control all commercial banks by its regulations. Commercial banks keep reserves with central bank as a requirement. Central bank also helps commercial banks in their daily business life by providing loans, security to cash reserves and gives them advice on financial and economic issues.
Clearing House
Another important function central bank does for commercial banks is acting as a clearing house for settle all the bill and checks drawn one another.
Lender of the Last Resort
Central bank helps commercial banks when they face any crisis, central bank come to rescue by advancing loans and bailout packages.
Credit Control
Credit Control becomes an emerging vital function of Central Banks. Although monitoring and controlling credit been always a function of central banks but as the technology grew and use of plastic and e-transaction is becoming more common there are many sensitive monetary issues arises. Central Banks take quantitative and qualitative methods for credit control such as bank rate, open market operation and moral situations etc.
Financial Agent
Central bank works as government agent for foreign exchange and gold transactions.
Central bank is the center of banking system of any country and has sole authority to control and regulate the supply of money. Central bank controls the supply of money by keeping the welfare of people in mind as primary object. Functions of central bank are discussed in detail below.
Monopoly over Issuing Currency
The primary function of central banks is to issue money in the country. Central bank issue currency notes by following certain regulations enforced by the state. There are different requirements which central bank need to fulfill for this purpose, one important prerequisite is keeping reserve against issued money. Some important advantages for this sole authority are:
- Credit creation by commercial banks can be checked and controlled by central bank.
- Central Bank has the confidence of people as it has the government backing and recognition.
- As the sole authority of issuing currency there is uniformity in the country’s currency.
- Government can use this sole authority for the best interest of people.
Government Agent and Advisor
It acts as the government bank and agent, to collect and pay transactions on behalf of the government. Central bank has a detail record of all monetary issues and present in good position to advise government for monetary, banking and financial issues.
Bankers Bank
It is the bank for all commercial banks and monitor and control all commercial banks by its regulations. Commercial banks keep reserves with central bank as a requirement. Central bank also helps commercial banks in their daily business life by providing loans, security to cash reserves and gives them advice on financial and economic issues.
Clearing House
Another important function central bank does for commercial banks is acting as a clearing house for settle all the bill and checks drawn one another.
Lender of the Last Resort
Central bank helps commercial banks when they face any crisis, central bank come to rescue by advancing loans and bailout packages.
Credit Control
Credit Control becomes an emerging vital function of Central Banks. Although monitoring and controlling credit been always a function of central banks but as the technology grew and use of plastic and e-transaction is becoming more common there are many sensitive monetary issues arises. Central Banks take quantitative and qualitative methods for credit control such as bank rate, open market operation and moral situations etc.
Financial Agent
Central bank works as government agent for foreign exchange and gold transactions.
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